The Official Strat-O-Matic Fanzine
|
|
|
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Somworld.com Preview Samples Sticky Fingers Top Pitchers Age 25 & Younger Tim Taylor October 25, 2006 How many of these players do you own in your draft league? Francisco Liriano – Not only the best pitcher in this age bracket but also the best pitcher in baseball. Filthy, filthy stuff!! What a slider!! Let’s hope he stays healthy. Carlos Zambrano – His stuff is electric and that fastball is tough when it runs into hitters. He’ll keep getting better and better every season. He finished second among starters with a .208 oppositional batting average. Francisco Rodriguez - He showed you why he’s an elite closer with an incredible 2006 performance. The fastball is difficult to catch up with and that slider just stuns hitters. K-Rod ranked number one in saves this season. Scott Kazmir – This guy is good enough to produce cards like Randy Johnson in his prime. He’ll explode once he gets a better grip on that slider. Watch out if he ever gets a real mean streak! Rich Harden – Staying healthy is the only thing that’s holding him back. Otherwise he’s got the stuff of Cy Young winners. Justin Verlander – He survived a full rookie season in style and throws three plus pitches. This kid is dynamite. Jake Peavy – It was a tough 2006 season but everything about Peavy charts as top of the line. The slider and cutter belong in a baseball museum. They’re knee buckling. Jon Papelbon – He went from something of a “sleeper” to producing a fantastic, unbelievable closer card in his rookie season. The 0.78 WHIP is vintage Nathan and Mariano territory. Josh Johnson – This Florida starter came out of nowhere and took advantage of hitters with his sharp fastball and slider. He could get even better. Houston Street – He’s very solid in the closer role and not afraid to throw any of his pitches at any point in the count. Who could ask for more than a 1.01 and a 1.09 WHIP in the first two seasons? Jered Weaver – Jeff’s younger brother made a rapid rise to the majors and dominated for most of the season. Felix Hernandez – He’s got one of the best fastballs in the game and that curve is the stuff of which dreams are made. Don’t let the slow 2006 start fool you. Jeremy Bonderman – He’s been around so long you forget that he’s still a young pitcher. He’ll continue improving as he works on the off-speed stuff. Dontrelle Willis – He almost won a Cy Young in 2005 and improves his pitch ability each season. Chad Cordero – Not a sexy pitcher but he’s been as solid as they come in his first two seasons. He finished strong in August and September. Matt Cain – He was a little inconsistent in his first season but that fastball/slider repertoire has a potential of producing Cy Young awards. Opponents hit a meek .222 against him. Just imagine when he cuts down on the walks. Ervin Santana – He has electric stuff and dominates at home. He’ll skyrocket if he can start doing it on the road. He had a 1.23 WHIP in a season of mixed results. Think what he might do if he puts it together. Scott Olsen - The slider is pure devastation. Olsen started slowly but turned in some menacing performances late in the season. Lefties hit a weak .182 against him. Jeff Francis – Call me crazy but Francis has the potential for developing into something truly special. Just look at what he did in his second season. A 1.29 WHIP from a Colorado pitcher!! Joel Zumaya – He’s more dynamic than Verlander based on the explosive fastball.
Get Yer Ya
Yas Out!! Miguel Cabrera
- Best 3B in baseball and he's still maturing as a hitter. Just imagine the
numbers when he’s playing in his prime for the Yankees at third base!!
2006 Draft Day Trends February 01, 2006 The top ten draft spots often represent one of the greater periods of excitement in Strat-O-Matic draft leagues. Wonder who goes where or who might fall down to your team causes as much stress and/or discomfort as almost anything else in the game. The early SOM draft league returns show 3 players that could raise havoc in the top ten draft order.
The Top Ten
Jeremy Hermida
averages as the second overall pick in our draft grid, followed very closely
by Jeff Francoeur. Uncertainty over the latter’s “internal” numbers
(walk, RH columns) creates more variation in the results.
Francoueur can range anywhere from the number 2 to number 7 pick. He most likely shows up as the number 2 or 3, or then falls to number 6 or 7.
Matt Cain is the number 4 or 5 pick in the draft. It’s not likely that he falls any lower in the draft.
Huston Street is the number 5 or 6 draft pick in most Strat leagues. He has about a 60 percent chance of going by the number 6 spot but can fall into the number 11 to 13 places on occasion.
Rickie Weeks, if available in your draft, represents the first “wild card” in the set. Some managers go early, spots 2 or 3, or wait until the 9 or 10 selection.
Zach Duke is the second “wild card” in the draft. He goes early, either 2 or 3, unless managers don’t like the SOM southpaw pitcher or they have moderate to good roster depth in that area. Duke can just as easily fall out of the top ten but should not last beyond the 11 to 13 range.
Ryan Zimmerman is a likely 7 or 8 draft pick in your league. There is a small chance that he goes 3 or 4 or even 11 or 12.
Andy Marte and Prince Fielder round out this list as expected top ten players in the draft. The data suggests that these guys usually fall 1 to 3 places.
It is unlikely that Marte falls past the number
9 spot. Some managers start grabbing him with the 5 pick.
Robinson Cano
has a good chance of going 8 to 10 in your Strat league draft. He’s not a
“solid” lock for the top ten because of the wide variation in his grid
record. He goes 8 to 11 in many drafts but also falls outside of the top
ten more than any other player on this list.
Notes Weeks represents a good example of the “prospect” who turns in a middling rookie performance. He definitely goes consensus 2 or 3 if getting 40 at bats in his rookie season. With a larger sample size, even one diminished by injuries, people saw enough of his defensive abilities to start rethinking his selection at a lower spot.
This phenomena happens in every draft. Drafting potential has a high percentage for failure. Selecting raw, inexperienced players can often turn into a great disappointment. Just think of how many people might want that number 3 Zack Grienke pick back! People may think the same thing about several of the players listed above within a few years.
Potential Draft Changes Cano, Zimmerman, and Duke have the widest standard deviation scores. These should represent the players that will impact the early picks and perhaps knock another player down a few spots or two.
The Cano draft position, in particular, varies
to such a degree that you’d have to drop into the number 20 to 25 spots to
find a similar level of variation.
Probable Top Ten Results 1. Felix Hernandez
Depth Key to 2006 Draft Without question, this represents the deepest draft in memory. Before the draft, many of the top pick holders advertised to trade down. They found few takers, with most content to take normal top five talents at the end of the first round. This year also featured unparalleled parity, with most teams expecting a winning record and no prohibitive preseason favorite. So the title was on the line. The annual draft day dilemma weighed more heavily on minds than ever. When do you forego top prospects for those cards that will put you over the top? In my opinion, there was a top tier of 17, then another tier of about 50 that represented first round talent. That’s over three rounds worth of top-notch talent! The debate started with the very first pick. The Millard Mavs, poised for another playoff run and needing pitching, decided to forego the cards and take the perceived best talent in Delmon Young. Talk about guts. With a playoff bound team in a tightly contested race, it had to be difficult for Mark Lehman to pass up so many prime talents who also featured cards that could help win this year. The Shetland Ponies used their newly acquired pick to nab Justin Verlander, whose card is not special, but his right arm most certainly is. Defending Star World Series Tournament champion Wayne Cannon, who last year positioned himself to possess four of the top 23 picks and eight of the top 46, selected Stephen Drew. Again, we saw a respected manager pass up better cards for the perceived better prospect. Before Cannon stopped typing, Whiz Kids owner Jordan Smith tabbed the other side of the SS debate, Hanley Ramirez. Jordan will gladly take the card in addition to a great future. Wily veteran Rich Shirey couldn’t believe his Irish luck to see Jared Weaver, arguably worthy of the first pick, sitting available at pick 5. Larry Smith’s Mid Hudson Mitts selected Peter Angelos’ favorite player, fellow Greek Nick Markakis, the best hitting young OF card . The Marlins featured three nice pitching cards in this year’s draft, each with debates about their future. Anibal Sanchez went at pick seven, the Ponies’ second pick of the draft. Mike McConchie, a charter CBL member, gladly nabbed Josh Johnson with pick nine. Another charter member, Bob Poogach, took Scott Olsen with pick 11. If he keeps his head on straight and his elbow holds out, Olsen could be the best of the bunch. In between the Marlins pitchers were two Dodgers, Andre Ethier to the Shenandoah Shawnees at pick eight and Russell Martin to the Ponies at ten. Ethier was another good everyday card, but his ceiling is not as high as Hermida, Chris Young, Quentin, or Milledge. Andre’s hit percentage of balls put in play was nearly 20% above the norm and he only possesses average power. Not what you’re looking for in an average fielding corner OF. At first at thought this was a bit high for Martin, but catching was at a premium the entire draft. In hindsight, if you wanted him, he wasn’t going to last much longer. After LA fan Eric Johns missed out on the top two Dodgers, his California Comets passed on Broxton and Kendrick to take east coast lefty Cole Hamels. Hamels has as much upside as any pitcher in the draft, hindered only by the fact he’s a lefty. The Rogues then took Tigers closer-in-waiting Joel Zumaya, who set the record in 2006 with the most 100 mph pitches in a season. He will be a dominant middle reliever this season, and soon move into Detroit’s closer role. The Bronx Bombers ignored youth and went for Kenjii Johjima, a backward good-fielding catcher with low on base and solid power. I thought he would last longer, simply because of his age. But catchers with power and an arm are always at a premium, and Mitch Singer snagged one at #14. One of the biggest questions in this draft would be how far Francisco Liriano would fall after his elbow surgery. Mike Lehman answered that with pick #15. Liriano will be a force this year with a ton of innings that can start, relieve, or even do both in the playoffs. Hard to argue with this pick on a team going for it in 2006. With modern medicine, Liriano will be back and effective in 2008. Wayne Cannon assured himself of a power hitting middle infield with Dan Uggla at #16. Uggla came from nowhere to become the new Jeff Kent in 2006. Can he keep it up, or was it a flash in the pan? He’s 26 and only hit 258 in the second half. Solid minor league numbers mean he’ll be usable, but probably never more than a 3 at 2B. Wayne Snider then took one of the best value picks at #17, Jeremy Hermida. If available last year, Hermida would have been a top 5 pick. One injury-plagued season shouldn’t have soured his value so steeply, considering he’s only 23. Many will regret not selecting him earlier. After the first 17 picks, 15 of my top 17 had been selected. Cases could be made that Ethier and Johjima, because of their cards this year, were 18 and 19. From my perspective, the only 2 remaining top-flight picks left were Howie Kendrick and Carlos Quentin. They lasted a while. Desperately needing a full time catcher, the Norristown Zips were forced to select Ronny Paulino at #18. With Russell Martin and Johjima going earlier than expected, Mike had to be disappointed to be placed in this position, drafting a 25 year old catcher without power with his first pick. I looked back at Shingo Takatsu’s rookie card, which lasted until early Round 2, and took Takashi Saito out of the top 17. Despite his great card, he’s 37 and wasn’t this good in Japan. With all this prime young talent, I felt certain he would last until I picked at #22. I was wrong. Rich McCoy, ever the unpredictable, took Saito for his rebuilding team as trade bait. He later traded Saito for David DeJesus, the CF he really needed without one present in the draft. Despite all this depth, there is no great usable full time CF in this pool. With closers rare commodities this year, the Saito pick started a closer run. Massive young Jonathan Broxton rounded out Round 1, going to the Zips. I’m not one to take prospect closers unless their card is spectacular, but the lack of closers combined with Broxton’s accomplishments at 22 made him a reasonable pick here. For those of you playing for this year, you’ll find plenty of hard righties out there in later rounds. I selected Pat Neshek in the second half of Round 5 and Wes Littleton early in the 6th. Although they have limited innings, you’re not going to let hard righties go too long anyway. Chris Britton (3rd), Kevin Correia (5th), Jose Capellan (5), and Fernando Nieve (5) also fit this role. As Round 2 opened, closers were gone with Cannon’s selection of Adam Wainwright. I took Howie Kendrick at #22, and Carlos Quentin, the best value of the draft, slid all the way to Eric Johns at #32. Other surprises: Scott Proctor to the Ponies at 27: there were younger arms and better cards available. Chad Billingsley, Adam Loewen, Jermey Sowers, Josh Barfield and Matt Garza were great value in Round 2. Anthony Reyes, Troy Tulowitzki, and Bill James forecasted NL ERA champ Rich Hill represented first round talent in Round 3. Juan Cruz, Boof Bonser, James Loney, and Ryan Garko highlighted Round 4. There was a second tier of about 50 guys that I pegged as first or second round talent in a normal year. This year, more than ever, you can get top prospects in the middle rounds. Mr. Irrelevant, Adam Jones, is a slick fielding 21-year-old CF with 20HR power and 300 potential. The next to last pick, Edinson Volquez, is a top-notch pitching prospect that lasted until pick 159. Other solid prospects taken late: Craig Hansen in the eighth, Jeff Mathis, Ben Zobrist, and Taylor Tankersley in the seventh, Kendry Morales, Kevin Kouzmanoff, and Jason Hirsh in the sixth, Tom Gorzelanny and Adam Lind, a steal in Round 5 for the Icons. There are lots of good young starters with solid cards, and a plenty with mediocre cards. James Shields, Casey Janssen, Cha Seung Baek, and Jonathan Sanchez weren’t even drafted. Closer cards, though, were few and far between. Lefty starters slid below their talent level. Usable catching went at a premium. There were plenty of usable corner OF cards, with Gabe Gross lasting until Round 8, but few CF and fewer lefty killers than usual. Second basemen slid, as managers were content to let one fall to them. With Uggla, Kendrick, Barfield, Punto out there, Brandon Phillips, DeRosa, and Kinsler fell to Round 4! The entire draft can be viewed on the CBL website at http://mysite.verizon.net/vzeryq2g/cbl.htm So trade down, load up on those second and third round picks to nab multiple first round talent in 2007!
Somworld.com
|
