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Good & Bad Stories
April 24, 2013

Statistical output over a 15 to 20 game period fluctuates for even the greatest of players. The best players can sink like a stone. The worst players can have “Babe Ruth” or “Randy Johnson” moments. Nevertheless, we can look at the BB and K rates from the initial 2013 moments and ponder whether they represent new levels of performance.

Obviously Chris Davis will not maintain his current pace over the entire season but the BB and K rates certainly deserve consideration as potential evidence of growth. Davis could have a monster season if he can hold these levels. A 15 percent walk rate translates to big somBB units. Davis, in all likelihood, drops considerable off all of these levels but his card becomes demonstrably better if he can come up with something that's even close to a .280 average and a 10 percent walk rate. The difference between a .270 average (Davis in 2012) and a .280 average is roughly 4 hit units given the current SOM set averages. The difference between a 7 percent walk rate (Davis in 2012) and a 10 percent walk rate is 4 somBB units. Even with the .280 and 10 percent walk rate in 2013, a modest improvement, we're talking possibly the addition of 8 OB units to the Davis card.  That's huge for draft league purposes.

Matt Harvey has seen a noticeable improvement in his BB percentage over his first four starts. It’s a very good sign when your Strat pitchers get below the 3.5 level. The current BBpct rate represents a drop of 7 somBB units compared to his 2012 card. That's the equivalent of 40 fewer baserunners over a 162-game season when translated back to the Strat game engine.

Josh Hamilton still offers big potential in the power department but the odds of him hitting .290+ look less likely given his rising K percentage. He’s fallen dramatically in this area over the past two seasons. He still has valuable cards ahead of him but he’s definitely a riskier investment at this point. Any player with 25+ K percentage is a risk for Strat purposes, no matter the power upside or other unit/ratings potential.

Tim Lincecum is still having horrific control issues through his first four starts. The hit and K percentages are very good. That means there’s no need to wash our hands of Lincecum but it’s very hard to have confidence in him for draft leagues with the high K rate. There is good news for Lincecum owners in larger draft leagues. He doesn't have huge TB issues so it is possible that the card can work at the back end of the rotation provided the hit percentages does indeed stay at the 2011 or 2013 levels.

The 2011 and 2012 batting average has been a major source of disappointment for Carlos Santana owners. Hitting above the league average is a welcome outcome for 2013. Getting to the .280 to .290 average mark would produce wonders in terms of the Santana current value, especially in light of the power ability.

Final Thoughts
Chris Davis might turn into a much more valuable commodity for keeper leagues based on his BB and K unit percentages. Matt Harvey has started his season by making the case for a higher average pick placement in last year’s draft. We’re not ready to say that Josh Hamilton and Tim Lincecum don’t rank as important keeper league options but the player profiles are starting to look more problematic.