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Mike Olt vs. Starling Marte
March 25, 2013

Who will end up with the bigger Strat cards? Mike Olt and his big power skills or Starling Marte with a better all-around profile?

Mike Olt has power and walk ability. That makes him an intriguing prospect in Strat drafts this year. The strikeout ability is worrisome. A player with this contact or strikeout rate typically doesn't have big Strat cards or a solid major league career. The most we might expect are a few columns here and there with quality numbers for draft league play. For fantasy purposes, playing time is the big issue for Olt. Texas has quality players at the infield and outfield corners. There are also plenty of options at DH. The lack of big AB potential for the 2013 season means Olt is more of a flyer or late round option in fantasy circles. The power ability, however, means major dividends if he does work his way into the lineup with greater than expected frequency. Olt in a full season can easily flirt with at least 20 to 25 home runs. 

Starling Marte doesn't have the power and walk ability of Olt but he's a better hitter as a whole and he should hit above league average for his career. Marte has also drawn great reviews for his defense. He might post excellent Strat ratings in those areas in future sets.  The hitting columns should be above average but there is a question as to how close Marte gets to good or elite for Strat draft leagues. The poor walk rate will hinder the somOB units. That means Marte might have to deliever big batting averages in order to have great Strat value. Marte will have ample playing time. That means he should go as a mid-round player in fantasy leagues. Marte is talented, no doubt, so he should produce better seasons than his 2013 projections. Certainly a minimum baseline of 20 home runs and a .280 average is a possibility in the near future. 

2013 Tale of the Tape
There are two likely scenarios for the 2013 season or card set. Olt has the short-term advantage in current value. The power and walk ability gives him the edge in terms of building card value. Marte should have more season value on the expected AB differential. He also figures as a more consistent hitter in his career, though not by a wide margin.  Marte also has contact issues and must do better in this area.

The second scenario is that Olt will bust as a Strat draft league player. The high strikeout rate is a concern. Players with his level or ratio typically do not post a lot of good cards. Think Mark Reynolds or Chris Davis as similar in terms of the profile.

Thoughts
Both players could end up as a top 100 hitter in a future set. Olt figures as a 35 to 38 OB hitter, perhaps a little better in some seasons, around 45 to 50 TB based on the HR ability. That's an 1,800 to 2,000 OB*TB hitter. Marte has the potential to reach the same levels. He doesn't have the Olt walk ability but he should hit for a higher average. 

Needless to say, given that 50 percent of rookie first round selections do not live up to original expectations, Olt or Marte may not have the career envisioned as of the league draft day. Marte looks a little safer at this time. Olt looks like someone that might have better columns or bust based on that strikeout rate.