Bruce, at the SOMWORLD discussion boards, writes this:

"I have created some 48 formulas already for the replication of a strat card. I think my efforts are pretty exacted. But I also know that my time invested is a mere "blink of an eye" compared to the SOM. I know this just from working with the formulae. So when Steve says "Special formulas", he means it. John Dewan, owner of Stats, Inc., is a long time SOM player. His company makes up special databases for SOM. These are "secret sauses". They earn their money doing what they do very well, I think. Having played a major role in reformulating the SOM cards has taught me alot - and not all formulas are meant to be broken. Is good - we want SOM to keep their formulas a secret - it keeps them going!"

Here's what Bruce wrote when he started the project.

"Card prognostication is a Pandora's Box to avid Strat players. Newspaper statistics alone will cripple you at draft time. It's time to give our Stratfans the ability to convert published statistics into SOM numbers. Beware! Such knowledge has been found to lopside and destroy leagues of all tenure. Use with discretion. Be patient! To bring every-body along, we'll play it one game at a time. First, we will lay a firm foundation in math basics. Be alert! Harold Richman isn't writing this column. There are hundreds of aspects to deal with in card forecasting. With your help, we can expect a 95 percent accuracy in all formulas presented here. This is a knowledge pool. If you've got a good formula or idea, let us know. A bit of warmth from this journalist: I've played SOM for 20-plus years. My wife has two children and myself to deal with as I work 100 hours a week, then brave the fires of SOM countless times. I have all SOM football cards from '67 to '85 and my buddy has all the baseball cards. Forecasting SOM cards accurately is an edge, not a guarantee. The game is all in the dice. If they roll your way, you win; if they don't, you lose. You've been warned: It's time to open Pandora's Box."

While, Bruce's formula aren't the actual formulas used by the company. They're pretty close and they provide a little insight into how the SOM cards are made.

I used Formula #14 to get an idea of what the SS e-ratings will look like for the 2000 set. The ratings book will be out in a week or so and we'll see how close I got.

Alex Rodriguez e11 Derek Jeter e27 Neifi Perez e19 Damian Jackson e39 Rey Sanchez e5 Miguel Tejada e22 Rafael Furcal e40 Nomar Garciaparra e22 Omar Vizquel e3 Edgar Renteria e31 Mike Bordick e18 Barry Larkin e19

Here are Bruce's Formulas. Have fun with them.

FORMULA #1: BATTER'S WALK somW = (((W - IW) * 216) / (AB + ( W - IW) + HBP)) -9

FORMULA #2: HIT BY PITCH somHBP = ((HBP * 216) / (AB + (W - IW) + HBP))

FORMULA #3: BATTER'S HIT somH = ((( BA - .265 ) + BA ) * ( 108 - ( somW + somHBP )

FORMULA #4: BATTER'S DOUBLE somD = (( 4320 * DOUBLE ) / ( AB + ( W - IW ) + HBP ) - 90

FORMULA #5: BATTER'S TRIPLE somT = (( 4320 * TRIPLE ) / ( AB + ( W - IW ) + HBP ) - 15

FORMULA #6: BATTER'S HOMERUN somHR = (( 4320 * HOMERUN ) / ( AB + ( W - IW ) + HBP ) - 50

FORMULA #7: BATTER'S PATTERN CHART see previous articles

FORMULA #8: BATTER'S STRIKEOUT somK = (( K * 216 ) / ( AB + ( W - IW ) + HBP )) -17

FORMULA #9: BATTER'S GBA somGBA = (( 1140 * DP ) / ( AB + ( W - IW ) + HBP )

FORMULA #10: BATTER'S 1ST SB LEAD # som1SB = (( SB / ( SB + CS )) + .13 ) * 20

FORMULA #11: BATTER'S 2ND SB LEAD # som2SB = ( 1SB / 3 ) +1

FORMULA #12: BATTER'S LEAD CHANCES somSBlead = (36 * ( SB + CS )) / ((( H + ( W - IW ) + HBP ) * .85 ) - ( D + T + HR ))

FORMULA #13: ASTERISKS som* = @IF ( 1SB + SBlead ) > 24

FORMULA #14: FIELDING ERRORS somE = ( E * 1458 ) / INNINGS FIELDED ( at that pos ) NOTE: LF, CF, & RF is all added together to make OUTFIELDER

FORMULA #15: PITCHER'S TBF pTBF = ( IP * 2.95 ) + HITS + ( W - IW )

FORMULA #16: PITCHER'S WALK sompW = (( W - IW ) * 216 ) / ( TBF - IW )) - 9

FORMULA #17a: PITCHER'S HIT sompH = ((( HIT / TBF ) * 216 ) - 29.4 ) + XF (XF = Xchart FACTOR; DEFAULT = 4.9)

FORMULA #17b: PITCHER'S HIT sompH = ((( HIT * ( 168 - sompW ) / (( TBF - IW ) * .265)) + (((( 2 * oppBA ) - .265 ) * 30 ) - XF)

FORMULA #18: PITCHER'S DOUBLE sompD = (( D * 216 ) / (TBF - IW )) - 90

PRE 1990 FORMULA #18 psomD = psomHR * 1.8

FORMULA #19: PITCHER'S TRIPLE sompT = (( T * 216 ) / (TBF - IW )) - 15

PRE 1990 FORMULA #19 sompT = sompHR * .4

FORMULA #20: PITCHER'S HOMERUN sompHR = (( HR * 216 ) / (TBF - IW)) - 50

FORMULA #20: PITCHER'S PATTERN CHART see previous issue

FORMULA #21: PITCHER'S STRIKEOUT sompK = (( K * 216 ) / ( TBF - IW ))

FORMULA #22: PITCHER'S HOLD sompHOLD = (( SB / ( SB + CS )) - .6666 ) * 20

FORMULA #23: PITCHER'S POINT OF WEAKNESS sompPOW = IP / APP

FORMULA #24: PITCHER'S ERROR sompERROR = ( E * 1458 ) / IP

FORMULA #25: PITCHER'S BALK sompBALK = ( BALK * 290 ) / IP

FORMULA #26: PITCHER'S WILDPITCH sompWILDPITCH = ( WP * 200 ) / IP

FORMULA #27: PITCHER'S CLOSER RATINGS sompCLOSE =0=N; 1-3=0; 4-6=1; 7-9=2; 10-14=3; 15-19=4; 20-29=5; >30=6

FORMULAS #28:W POWER HR ADJUSTMENT somHR = (((leagueHR/leaguePA)*20)*(108-somHBP-somW))+somHR(under 10)